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Nat Commun:南京大学毕军教授课题组等发表大气污染研究论文

摘要 : 2017年9月29日,国际学术权威刊物自然出版集团旗下子刊《Nature Communication》杂志在线发表了南京大学环境学院毕军教授课题组在环境健康风险进展文章

2017年9月29日,国际学术权威刊物自然出版集团旗下子刊《Nature Communication》杂志在线发表了南京大学环境学院毕军教授课题组在环境健康风险进展文章,研究成果题为《贸易对中国大气污染及公众健康的影响》(Trade-driven relocation of air pollution and health impacts in China)。王海鲲副教授为论文的第一和通讯作者,毕军教授和清华大学鲁玺副教授为共同通讯作者。

全球化背景下,国际贸易可以使商品的生产过程从最终消费地区转移到生产地区,与商品生产相关的污染物排放也随之发生迁移,进而影响大气污染健康影响的绝对量和时空分布。中国省际间贸易与国际贸易往往混合在一起,对区域大气污染具有类似的影响。本研究通过耦合全球多地区投入产出模型、排放清单模型、大气化学传输模型和健康效应模型,首次综合评估了国际贸易和省际间贸易对中国大气污染及公众健康的影响。结果显示,2007年我国50-60%的大气污染排放量受到贸易的影响,在空间分布上发上了迁移。国际贸易产生的PM2.5污染造成了约21万人过早死亡,约占全国PM2.5造成的过早死亡人数的19%。而国内省际间贸易总体上提高了沿海发达省份的空气质量,使全国PM2.5污染造成的过早死亡人数减少约8万人。但是,国际和国内贸易均加重了中国内陆欠发达省份的大气污染健康影响。因此,我国应该加速产业结构调整,重点提升内陆欠发达区域经济和技术水平,从源头上减少污染物排放;同时,积极参与国际多边合作机制,通过引进先进技术等减少国际贸易中隐含的污染,降低全球大气污染的健康影响。

图1. 中国各省基于生产和消费的大气污染物排放

图2. 国际贸易和国内省际间贸易对中国大气污染的健康影响

原文链接:

Trade-driven relocation of air pollution and health impacts in China

原文摘要:

Recent studies show that international trade affects global distributions of air pollution and public health. Domestic interprovincial trade has similar effects within countries, but has not been comprehensively investigated previously. Here we link four models to evaluate the effects of both international exports and interprovincial trade on PM2.5pollution and public health across China. We show that 50–60% of China’s air pollutant emissions in 2007 were associated with goods and services consumed outside of the provinces wher they were produced. Of an estimated 1.10 million premature deaths caused by PM2.5 pollution throughout China, nearly 19% (208,500 deaths) are attributable to international exports. In contrast, interprovincial trade leads to improved air quality in developed coastal provinces with a net effect of 78,500 avoided deaths nationwide. However, both international export and interprovincial trade exacerbate the health burdens of air pollution in China’s less developed interior provinces. Our results reveal trade to be a critical but largely overlooked consideration in effective regional air quality planning for China.

来源: Nature Communications 浏览次数:0

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