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摘要 : 云一直是气候敏感性估测中的重要不确定因素。

 云一直是气候敏感性估测中的重要不确定因素。Joel Norris及同事最近开发了一种消除历史卫星云图中错误信息的方法,他们运用该方法记录了上世纪80年代到本世纪前十年的全球云型变化模式。在修正过的卫星云图中,云分布的变化与近期有外部辐射强迫的气候模型的预测类似。模型和观察都显示,在过去几十年间,风暴路径向极地移动,副热带干燥区扩大。云型变化最可能的原因是温室气体含量增加和火山辐射冷却效应逐渐衰退。


Evidence for climate change in the satellite cloud record


Clouds substantially affect Earth’s energy budget by reflecting solar radiation back to space and by restricting emission of thermal radiation to space1. They are perhaps the largest uncertainty in our understanding of climate change, owing to disagreement among climate models and observational datasets over what cloud changes have occurred during recent decades and will occur in response to global warming2, 3. This is because observational systems originally designed for monitoring weather have lacked sufficient stability to detect cloud changes reliably over decades unless they have been corrected to remove artefacts4, 5. Here we show that several independent, empirically corrected satellite records exhibit large-scale patterns of cloud change between the 1980s and the 2000s that are similar to those produced by model simulations of climate with recent historical external radiative forcing. Observed and simulated cloud change patterns are consistent with poleward retreat of mid-latitude storm tracks, expansion of subtropical dry zones, and increasing height of the highest cloud tops at all latitudes. The primary drivers of these cloud changes appear to be increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and a recovery from volcanic radiative cooling. These results indicate that the cloud changes most consistently predicted by global climate models are currently occurring in nature.

来源: Nature 浏览次数:1


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