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摘要 : 死可以与一系列不同因素联系起来,其中包括臭氧和细颗粒物等户外空气污染物对人体健康的影响。这篇论文研究早死与城市和农村环境中七个来源的大气污染物之间的关系。J


早死可以与一系列不同因素联系起来,其中包括臭氧和细颗粒物等户外空气污染物对人体健康的影响。这篇论文研究早死与城市和农村环境中七个来源的大气污染物之间的关系。Jos Lelieveld等人发现,户外空气污染(主要由细颗粒物造成)在世界范围内每年导致大约300万人早死。来自住宅能源使用如取暖和做饭(在印度和中国普遍存在)的污染物排放在全球范围内对早死有最大影响。在美国大部分地区和少数其他国家,来自交通和发电的污染物排放是重要因素,而在美国东部、欧洲、俄罗斯和东亚,来自农业生产的污染物排放对细颗粒物的相对贡献最大,对健康的总体影响取决于有关毒性的假设。


The contribution of outdoor air pollution sources to premature mortality on a global scale


Assessment of the global burden of disease is based on epidemiological cohort studies that connect premature mortality to a wide range of causes, including the long-term health impacts of ozone and fine particulate matter with a diameter smaller than 2.5 micrometres (PM2.5) It has proved difficult to quantify premature mortality related to air pollution, notably in regions wher air quality is not monitored, and also because the toxicity of particles from various sources may vary10. Here we use a global atmospheric chemistry model to investigate the link between premature mortality and seven emission source categories in urban and rural environments. In accord with the global burden of disease for 2010 (ref. 5), we calculate that outdoor air pollution, mostly by PM2.5, leads to 3.3 (95 per cent confidence interval 1.61–4.81) million premature deaths per year worldwide, predominantly in Asia. We primarily assume that all particles are equally toxic5, but also include a sensitivity study that accounts for differential toxicity. We find that emissions from residential energy use such as heating and cooking, prevalent in India and China, have the largest impact on premature mortality globally, being even more dominant if carbonaceous particles are assumed to be most toxic. wheras in much of the USA and in a few other countries emissions from traffic and power generation are important, in eastern USA, Europe, Russia and East Asia agricultural emissions make the largest relative contribution to PM2.5, with the estimate of overall health impact depending on assumptions regarding particle toxicity. Model projections based on a business-as-usual emission scenario indicate that the contribution of outdoor air pollution to premature mortality could double by 2050.

来源: Nature 浏览次数:0


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