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帝企鹅死亡日记

摘要 : 不用惊讶,一项新研究显示,由于气候变化,到本世纪末,帝企鹅的种群数量将骤降19%。帝企鹅在南极洲海冰边缘繁殖和养育自己的后代,因此,冻结海水数量保持不变对它们的生存极为重要。

不用惊讶,一项新研究显示,由于气候变化,到本世纪末,帝企鹅的种群数量将骤降19%。帝企鹅在南极洲海冰边缘繁殖和养育自己的后代,因此,冻结海水数量保持不变对它们的生存极为重要。

海冰变化严重威胁企鹅生存。

海冰变化严重威胁企鹅生存。

图片来源:STEPHANIE JENOUVRIER/WHOI

海冰太少则意味着企鹅将要挨饿,因为海冰是乌贼、鱼类和磷虾等企鹅食物的躲藏处。如果海冰过多,企鹅就需要跋涉更远的距离到达海洋,这对于未繁育后代的成年企鹅而言都是困难的往返之旅,更不用说是要喂养幼仔的企鹅父母了。

在一个给定位置,气候变化能直接和间接影响海冰范围,不仅是变温暖的气候和海冰融化,而且还通过改变风的模式和海浪高度推动四周的海冰。现在,研究人员使用45个已知的企鹅聚居地的海冰冰层的气候预测,评估海冰盈亏对未来企鹅种群的影响。

通过使用已经较充分研究的东部南极洲阿德莱德地区的企鹅种群的数量资料,该研究小组推断,至少75%的帝企鹅种群易受海冰变化的影响。阿德莱德地区的帝企鹅就是纪录片《帝企鹅日记》中的主人公。研究人员还发现,到2100年,可能有20%的种群灭绝,相关研究报告近日在线发表于《自然—气候变化》期刊上。

原文摘要:

Projected continent-wide declines of the emperor penguin under climate change

Stéphanie Jenouvrier, Marika Holland, Julienne Stroeve, Mark Serreze, Christophe Barbraud, Henri Weimerskirch & Hal Caswell

Climate change has been projected to affect species distribution and future trends of local populations, but projections of global population trends are rare. We analyse global population trends of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri), an iconic Antarctic top predator, under the influence of sea ice conditions projected by coupled climate models assessed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) effort. We project the dynamics of all 45 known emperor penguin colonies by forcing a sea-ice-dependent demographic model with local, colony-specific, sea ice conditions projected through to the end of the twenty-first century. Dynamics differ among colonies, but by 2100 all populations are projected to be declining. At least two-thirds are projected to have declined by >50% from their current size. The global population is projected to have declined by at least 19%. Because criteria to classify species by their extinction risk are based on the global population dynamics, global analyses are critical for conservation9. We discuss uncertainties arising in such global projections and the problems of defining conservation criteria for species endangered by future climate change.

来源: 中国科学报 浏览次数:20

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